Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Caucus Eve Predictions

I love making predictions. I'm always guessing out loud what I think might happen in politics.

Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong. Last summer I made a bet with another blogger that Fred Thompson would be the Republican presidential nominee. Whoops!?!

I've been about as closely engaged with this process as any normal human being can be. I've attended literally dozens of campaign events and met most of the candidates personally. I've watched all of the TV ads and answered the phone countless times to hear robo-calls and sometimes living, breathing campaign staffers making their case for their candidates.

I watched candidates munch pork chops at the state fair and tenderloins in Albia.

It's amazing and sort of sad that it's all going to come to an end tomorrow night. I might have to start a new hobby or something to occupy my time.

Everywhere I go, friends and acquaintances ask me who is going to win. I almost always end up boring them with a long sermon about the caucuses and each candidate before finally getting to the point that I really don't know.

But now, on the eve of the caucuses, I think I know. I'll try to avoid writing a long a boring list of predictions and explanations. There are plenty of pundits who do that all the time. I'll get straight to the point. Here's basically what I think is going to happen:

First, the Republicans...

Mike Huckabee will win the Iowa Republican caucuses, but it will be a very close victory over Mitt Romney. Neither candidate will really benefit from it. This will result in a storyline that helps John McCain in New Hampshire and further makes the Republican nomination anybody's ball game.

And the Democrats...

Barack Obama will win a decisive victory on Thursday night in Iowa, and it will go down as an historic mark in presidential politics.

John Edwards will win here in Monroe County and in many of the rural counties around the state, but he won't be able to muster enough support to place above Obama or Hillary.

Hillary's campaign will be seriously wounded after putting everything into winning and coming up short. She will limp through the rest of the early states. But that doesn't mean she won't win the Democratic nomination.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

D, I hope youre right! On the Democrats, at least. I find both the frontrunner Republicans absolutely frightening, but still agree with your prediction. I-O-W-A, BARACH OBAMA ALL THE WAY!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Wow, it would be nice if I could spell Barack, you know what I mean....

Joe said...

The last week has made a difference here in Monroe County. If we can get our identified supporters to the caucus we may make a surprise... I still think Edwards has the edge, Clinton has several Dem loyalists but we have been moving numbers. The important point here is that if we have moved this many here then the areas of the state where Obama had a lot of early support has got to be "BARACK'N"